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Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops

  • Enrique G. Mendoza

This paper reports results for a class of dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium models with credit constraints that can account for some of the empirical regularities of the Sudden Stop phenomenon of recent emerging markets crises. In these models, credit constraints set in motion Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism and they bind as an endogenous equilibrium outcome when agents are highly indebted. The quantitative predictions of these models yield three key lessons: (1) Sudden Stops can occur as an endogenous response to typical realizations of adverse shocks to fundamentals, in environments in which agents plan their actions taking credit constraints and expectations of Sudden Stops into account. (2) Credit constraints cause output declines during Sudden Stops when collateral constraints limit debt to a fraction of the market value of capital, when there are limits on access to working capital, or when debt-deflation lowers the value of the marginal product of factors of production. (3) The debt-deflation mechanism has significant quantitative effects in terms of the amplification, asymmetry and persistence of the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to standard shocks, and in the occurrence of Sudden Stops as infrequent events nested within regular business cycles. Precautionary saving rules out the largest Sudden Stops from the stochastic stationary state, but Sudden Stops remain a positive-probability event in the long run.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 96 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 411-416

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:2:p:411-416
Note: DOI: 10.1257/000282806777211676
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  1. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," Research Department Publications 4307, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 381-387, May.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Working Papers 8338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1998. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Philippe Martin & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9261, Sciences Po.
  8. Emine Boz, 2005. "Do Miracles Lead to Crises?: An Informational Frictions Explanation to Emerging Market Financial Crises," 2005 Meeting Papers 496, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/88, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing Sudden Stops?: A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B, 2004. "External Currency Pricing and the East Asian Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gopinath, Gita, 2004. "Lending booms, sharp reversals and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, January.
  15. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
  16. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  17. repec:fth:starer:9825 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2005. "World Interest Rate, Business Cycles, and Financial Intermediation in Small Open Economies," Staff General Research Papers 12360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Philippe Martin & Helene Rey, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or without Crash?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00176903, HAL.
  21. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Finn, Mary G., 1995. "Variance properties of Solow's productivity residual and their cyclical implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1249-1281.
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