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Lending Booms, Sharp Reversals and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

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  • Gopinath, Gita

Abstract

Emerging markets in the 1990s experienced periods of booms followed by collapses in gross domestic product, consumption, traded and non-traded sector output and real exchange rate movements alongside unprecedented movements in foreign investor participation in these economies. An important feature of these episodes is the asymmetry in the pattern of booms and collapses. We introduce a natural search friction into the foreign investment decision in a small open economy and demonstrate that this can generate the asymmetry observed in the data. The magnitude of the reversals predicted by the model can be quantitatively large and empirically relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopinath, Gita, 2003. "Lending Booms, Sharp Reversals and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Scholarly Articles 11988005, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:11988005
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    Cited by:

    1. Mody, Ashoka & Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2002. "The Role of Information in Driving FDI: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. repec:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:7:p:1904-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    4. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    5. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2003. "Gains from FDI inflows with incomplete information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 71-77, January.
    6. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, "undated". "Endogenous Flows of Foreign Direct Investment and International Real Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 2011-E16, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    7. Assaf Razin & Ashoka Mody & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "The Role of Information in Driving FDI Flows; Host-Country Transparency and Source-Country Specialization," IMF Working Papers 03/148, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    9. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    10. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
    11. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Transparency, Specialization and FDI (new title: Corporate Transparency, Cream-Skimming and FDI)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1161, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 411-416, May.
    13. Razin, Assaf, 2017. "Israel's Immigration Story: Globalization lessons," CEPR Discussion Papers 11877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1141-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
    16. Michael Bleaney, & Liliana Castilleja Vargas, "undated". "Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers 07/12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    17. Martin Melecky, 2007. "Compounded Effects of External Crises on GDP Growth," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(4), pages 642-659, December.
    18. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "Sudden stops, financial crises and leverage: a Fisherian deflation of Tobin's Q," International Finance Discussion Papers 960, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    20. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2007. "Corporate transparency, cream-skimming and FDI," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1263-1276, July.
    21. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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