IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v43y2012i3p1041-1071.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long- and short-run determinants of capital flows to Latin America: a long-run structural GVAR model

Author

Listed:
  • Melisso Boschi

    ()

Abstract

This article documents the determinants of capital flows to Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, assessing the relative importance of domestic and international factors through the estimation of a long-run structural Global VAR model of the world economy. The results show that in the long-run international factors prevail on domestic factors as determinants of the equilibrium behaviour of Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and also provide overwhelming evidence that domestic shocks are predominantly responsible for their short-run dynamics. Although all previous studies focus on the US economic influence, one striking result of this article is that the US variables are by no means the main external factors affecting Latin American NFA. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Melisso Boschi, 2012. "Long- and short-run determinants of capital flows to Latin America: a long-run structural GVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1041-1071, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:1041-1071
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0524-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-011-0524-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    4. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    6. Soderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 1996. "Applied Cointegration Analysis in the Mirror of Macroeconomic Theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 363-381, July-Aug..
    7. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    10. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
    12. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    13. Lanne, Markku & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Unit root tests for time series with level shifts: a comparison of different proposals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 109-114, March.
    14. Larry Wall, 2004. "Comment on Carter, McNulty, and Verbrugge," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-258, April.
    15. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    16. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    17. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 313-348, April.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    20. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1235-1246, May.
    21. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    22. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    23. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    24. Melisso Boschi, 2005. "International financial contagion: evidence from the Argentine crisis of 2001-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 153-163.
    25. Albert H. De Wet & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2008. "Conditional Loss Estimation Using a South African Global Error Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Working Papers 200826, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    26. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention," NBER Working Papers 8529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2002. "Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 667-685, November.
    28. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    29. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    30. de Wet, Albertus H. & van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan, 2009. "Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1000-1011, September.
    31. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    32. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    33. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    34. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-run determinants of the Irish real exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 549-553.
    35. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    36. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    37. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Burda, Maike M., 1997. "Modified Wald tests under nonregular conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 315-332, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1235-1246, May.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 84.1-84.16.
    3. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2015. "Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 403-421, September.
    4. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    5. repec:rbp:esteco:ree-32-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2016. "Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: evidence from Latin America," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 231-252, March.
    7. Flores, Jairo, 2016. "Transmisión de choques de política monetaria de EstadosUnidos sobre América Latina: Un enfoque GVAR," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 32, pages 35-54.
    8. repec:eee:anture:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Net foreign assets; Capital flows; Real exchange rate; Latin America; Emerging markets; VECM; Global VAR; F21; F32; C32; C50;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:1041-1071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.