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Long- and short-run determinants of capital flows to Latin America: a long-run structural GVAR model

  • Melisso Boschi

    ()

This article documents the determinants of capital flows to Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, assessing the relative importance of domestic and international factors through the estimation of a long-run structural Global VAR model of the world economy. The results show that in the long-run international factors prevail on domestic factors as determinants of the equilibrium behaviour of Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and also provide overwhelming evidence that domestic shocks are predominantly responsible for their short-run dynamics. Although all previous studies focus on the US economic influence, one striking result of this article is that the US variables are by no means the main external factors affecting Latin American NFA. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-011-0524-6
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 1041-1071

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:1041-1071
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  2. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2009. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," MPRA Paper 28147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
  7. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
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  13. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Chudozie Okongwu., 1995. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-054, University of California at Berkeley.
  15. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5718, Inter-American Development Bank.
  17. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  19. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
  20. Albert H. De Wet & Renee´ Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "Linking Global Economic Dynamics to a South African-Specific Credit Risk Correlation Model," Working Papers 200719, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  22. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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