IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01385910.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: a multilateral approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Audrey Sallenave

    ()

Abstract

An extensive literature stresses that currency misalignments are costly in terms of growth performance. However, these studies do not consider the direct and indirect effects of currency misalignments on other countries. In this paper, we analyze how misalignments of the dollar, the euro, and the renminbi affect their respective economies and those of their trading partners using a multi-country dataset GVAR model. Our model includes 15 advanced and emerging countries and uses quarterly data spanning the period 1980–2010. We find that misalignments significantly influence the world economy. We show that overvaluation and undervaluation shocks do not produce the same effects.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: a multilateral approach," Post-Print hal-01385910, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385910
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-paris10.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01385910
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-univ-paris10.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01385910/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Olivier J Blanchard, 2011. "(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/03, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    3. Rapetti Martin, 2013. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in a Competitive Real Exchange Rate Strategy for Development," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    7. Ignazio Angeloni & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benjamin Carton & Christophe Destais & Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Shahin Vallée, . "Global currencies for tomorrow: a European perspective," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 592.
    8. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June.
    9. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    10. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    12. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    13. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 471-494.
    14. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    15. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    17. Mattoo, Aaditya & Mishra, Prachi & Subramanian, Arvind, 2012. "Spillover effects of exchange rates : a study of the Renminbi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5989, The World Bank.
    18. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    19. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Cavallo, Michele & Ghironi, Fabio, 2002. "Net foreign assets and the exchange rate: Redux revived," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1057-1097, July.
    21. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October.
    22. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    23. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
    24. Jane Haltmaier & Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Ross Knippenberg & Sylvain Leduc & Mario Marazzi & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?," International Finance Discussion Papers 904, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    26. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
    27. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
    28. Ghironi, Fabio, 2008. "The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1780-1811, June.
    29. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    31. Masson, Paul R. & Kremers, Jeroen & Horne, Jocelyn, 1994. "Net foreign assets and international adjustment: The United States, Japan and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-40, February.
    32. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Audrey Sallenave, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    34. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    35. Peter Skott & Martin Rapetti & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "Real exchange rates and the long-run effects of aggregate demand in economies with underemployment," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2012-06, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    36. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    37. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
    38. Stephane Dees & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2011. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 573-591, December.
    39. P. Hiebert & I. Vansteenkiste, 2010. "International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: a GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3045-3066.
    40. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2010. "Currency Wars?," Policy Briefs PB10-26, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Bação & António Portugal Duarte & Diana Machado, 2016. "Exchange Rates, the Competitiveness of Nations and Unemployment," GEMF Working Papers 2016-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GVAR; Misalignments; Growth JEL Codes: F31; F41; F43;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.