IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/msh/ebswps/2014-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Taya Dumrongrittikul

    ()

  • Heather Anderson

    ()

  • Farshid Vahid

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates international responses of key macroeconomic variables, particularly real exchange rates, to simultaneous shocks to productivity in the traded sector in eight Asian emerging and developing countries. We use panel estimation techniques to construct component submodels in a thirty country global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The GVAR approach can account for interaction among all countries and capture many potential international transmission channels. We identify the shocks by using sign restricted impulse responses. We find that increases in traded-sector productivity in Asian developing countries lead to a real appreciation of the domestic currencies, in line with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Inflation also increases in many Asian developing countries. After the shocks, nontraded sector productivity in the US and other developed countries increases, suggesting that there is a compositional shift in their production, away from the traded goods toward the nontraded goods. This allows productivity in the nontraded sector to increase. Further, the traded sector productivity shocks in Asia stimulate international trade in most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2014-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp23-14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    2. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    5. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    6. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    7. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    9. Taya Dumrongrittikul, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Movements in Developed and Developing Economies: A Reinterpretation of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 537-553, December.
    10. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. P. Hiebert & I. Vansteenkiste, 2010. "International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: a GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3045-3066.
    12. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    13. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    14. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    15. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    16. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    17. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    18. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    19. Jaewoo Lee & Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 164-187, February.
    20. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Can the Balassa-Samuelson theory explain long-run real exchange rate movements in OECD countries?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 519-530.
    21. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    22. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
    23. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    24. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    25. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
    26. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sager, Michael, 2009. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal," Working Paper Series 1046, European Central Bank.
    27. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    28. Taya Dumrongrittikul, 2011. "Do Policy-Related Shocks Affect Real Exchange Rates? An Empirical Analysis Using Sign Restrictions and a Penalty-Function Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 25/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongyi Chen & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy: A Factor-augmented VAR Approach," Working Papers 092016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian developing countries; Exchange rate fundamentals; Global vector autoregression; Panel vector error correction model; Real exchange rates; Sign restricted impulse response.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2014-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xibin Zhang). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.