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Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls

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  • Boero, Gianna
  • Mandalinci, Zeyyad
  • Taylor, Mark P.

Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many emerging market countries resorted to capital controls to tackle the excessive surge of capital inflows. A number of recent research papers have suggested that the imposition of controls may have imposed negative externalities on other countries by deflecting flows. Our aim in the research reported in this paper is to assess the efficacy of capital controls and potential deflection effects on other countries by constructing a comprehensive global econometric model which captures the dynamic interactions of capital flows with domestic and global fundamentals. The results suggest that capital controls are effective for some countries in the short run, but have no lasting effects. Moreover, there is only limited evidence of deflection effects for a small number of emerging market countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:90:y:2019:i:c:p:142-160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.09.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Haichao & Gou, Qin & Peng, Yuchao & Xie, Wenjing, 2020. "Spillover effects of capital controls on capital flows and financial risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Di Filippo, Gabriele, 2017. "What Drives Gross Flows in Equity and Investment Fund Shares in Luxembourg?," MPRA Paper 84200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jan 2018.
    3. Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2020. "Capital controls spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2020. "Financial Market Incompleteness and International Cooperation on Capital Controls," Discussion Paper Series DP2020-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2020. "Cross-Border Portfolio Flows and News Media Coverage," CESifo Working Paper Series 8112, CESifo.
    6. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2019. "Globalisation And Governance: Thresholds For The Impacts Of The Main Determinants Of Capital Inflows?," ERC Working Papers 1902, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Mar 2019.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio capital flows; Global VAR (GVAR); Capital controls; Emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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