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Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Mody, Ashoka
  • Taylor, Mark P
  • Kim, Jung Yeon

Abstract

In this paper, we provide capital flow forecasts to 32 developing countries using a vector error correction framework based on underlying domestic (pull) fundamentals and international (push) factors. In general, pull factors have a heavier weight in determining these capital flows. However, short-term dynamics of capital flows can be significantly influenced by external developments. Simulations under various economic scenarios show that while financial variables (such as the US interest rate and high-yield spread) are important, real US activity may be even more potent in influencing capital flow movements. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-216, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:3:p:201-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Galina Hale, 2007. "Bonds or Loans? the Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 196-215, January.
    2. Cazzavillan, Guido & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2012. "Interaction between foreign financial services and foreign direct investment in Transition Economies: An empirical analysis with focus on the manufacturing sector," Research in Economics, Elsevier, pages 305-319.
    3. Marcin Humanicki & Robert Kelm & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment in the contemporary globalized world: should they be still treated separately?," NBP Working Papers 167, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    4. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2013. "International capital crunches: the time-varying role of informational asymmetries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2961-2973, July.
    5. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
    6. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2004. "Modelling the demand for emerging market assets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Lusine LUSINYAN, 2002. "International Capital Flows, Economic Growth and Financial Market Efficiency," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/20, European University Institute.
    8. Das, Udaibir S. & Papaioannou, Michael G. & Trebesch, Christoph, . "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," Chapters in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Michael Frenkel & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1275-1293, August.
    10. Al-Mashat Rania & Billmeier Andreas, 2012. "Push or Pull? The Determinants of Remittances to Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-27, October.
    11. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    12. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows into Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 11-35.
    13. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P, 2016. "Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 11689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Hale, Galina & Arteta, Carlos, 2009. "Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: Credit crunch or demand effect?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 758-774, October.
    15. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    16. Odedokun, Matthew, 2003. "The 'Pull' and 'Push' Factors in North-South Private Capital Flows: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Estimates," WIDER Working Paper Series 043, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    18. Rui Esteves & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1515-1545, October.
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 8634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 757, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    22. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Panda, Swayamsiddha, 2014. "Modeling India's External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Working Papers 14/138, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    23. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows Into Turkey," Working Papers 0605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    24. repec:psc:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:115-135 is not listed on IDEAS

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