Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
In this paper, we provide capital flow forecasts to 32 developing countries using a vector error correction framework based on underlying domestic (pull) fundamentals and international (push) factors. In general, pull factors have a heavier weight in determining these capital flows. However, short-term dynamics of capital flows can be significantly influenced by external developments. Simulations under various economic scenarios show that while financial variables (such as the US interest rate and high-yield spread) are important, real US activity may be even more potent in influencing capital flow movements. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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