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Catalysing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programmes Work as Commitment Devices?

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  • Ashoka Mody
  • Diego Saravia

Abstract

In this article, we examine whether IMF programmes influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and if they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued. We find that Fund programmes do not provide a uniformly favourable signalling effect. Instead, the evidence is most consistent with a positive effect of IMF programmes when they are viewed as likely to lead to policy reform and when undertaken before economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly. The size of the Fund's programme matters but the credibility of a joint commitment by the country and the IMF appears to be critical. Copyright 2006 International Monetary Fund. Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2006. "Catalysing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programmes Work as Commitment Devices?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 843-867, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:116:y:2006:i:513:p:843-867
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    Cited by:

    1. Fratzscher, Marcel & Reynaud, Julien, 2011. "IMF surveillance and financial markets--A political economy analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 405-422, September.
    2. Jorra, Markus, 2012. "The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 709-725.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    4. Diego Saravia, 2013. "Vulnerability, Crises and Debt Maturity: Do IMF Interventions Increase Reliance on Short-Term Debt?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 311-331, December.
    5. Diego Saravia, 2010. "Vulnerability, Crisis and Debt Maturity: do IMF Interventions Shorten the Length of Borrowing?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 600, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2017. "Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1730, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
    8. Daniel McDowell, 2017. "Need for speed: The lending responsiveness of the IMF," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 39-73, March.
    9. Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos & Ladeira, Carlos Eduardo de Almeida, 2015. "The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?," Textos para discussão 391, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    10. Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Masyita Crystallin, 2014. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Catalyze Donor Assistance to Low-Income Countries?," IMF Working Papers 14/202, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:spr:revint:v:13:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11558-017-9280-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:bla:coecpo:v:35:y:2017:i:3:p:484-504 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Molly Bauer & Cesi Cruz & Benjamin Graham, 2012. "Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-58, March.
    14. Goderis, Benedikt & Ioannidou, Vasso P., 2008. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 158-169, January.
    15. Beatrice D. Scheubel & Andrea Tafuro & Benjamin Vonessen, 2018. "STIGMA? WHAT STIGMA? A Contribution to the Debate on the Effectiveness of IMF Lending," CESifo Working Paper Series 7036, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P, 2016. "Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 11689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Zwart, Sanne, 2007. "The mixed blessing of IMF intervention: Signalling versus liquidity support," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 149-174, July.
    18. Wei, Shang-Jin & Zhang, Zhiwei & Du, Qingyuan, 2010. "Does the global fireman inadvertently add fuel to the fire? New evidence from institutional investors' response to IMF program announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 728-741, June.
    19. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "The role of creditor seniority in Europe's sovereign debt crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(79), pages 495-552, July.
    20. Muhammet Bas & Randall Stone, 2014. "Adverse selection and growth under IMF programs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, March.
    21. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2010. "The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 73-95, March.
    22. Andrea Presbitero & Dhaneshwar Ghura & Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Lamin Njie, 2015. "International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies; Drivers of Issuance and Spreads," IMF Working Papers 15/275, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Arpac, Ozlem & Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex, 2008. "Stop Interrupting: An Empirical Analysis of the Implementation of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1493-1513, September.

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