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Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy

Author

Listed:
  • Dées, Stéphane
  • Pesaran, Hashem
  • Smith, Vanessa
  • Holly, Sean

Abstract

This paper focuses on testing long run macroeconomic relations for interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region conditioning on the rest of the world. Bootstrapping is used to compute both the empirical distribution of the impulse responses and the log-likelihood ratio statistic for over-identifying restrictions. The paper also examines the speed with which adjustments to the long run relations take place via the persistence profiles. We find strong evidence in favour of the UIP and to a lesser extent the Fisher equation across a number of countries, but our results for the PPP are much weaker. Also the transmission of shocks and subsequent adjustments in financial markets are much faster than those in goods markets. JEL Classification: C32, E17, F47, R11

Suggested Citation

  • Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Holly, Sean, 2007. "Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy," Working Paper Series 750, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007750
    Note: 2544114
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fisher relationship; global VAR; persistence profile; purchasing power parity; uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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