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The Role of Credit in International Business Cycles

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  • TengTeng Xu

Abstract

This paper examines the role of bank credit in modeling and forecasting business cycle fluctuations, and investigates the international transmission of US credit shocks, using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and associated country-specific error correction models. The paper constructs and compiles a dataset on bank credit for 33 advanced and emerging market economies from 1979Q1 to 2009Q4. The empirical results suggest that the incorporation of credit provides significant improvement in modeling and forecasting output growth, changes in inflation and long run interest rates, for countries with developed banking sector. Impulse response analysis provide strong evidence of the international spillover of US credit shocks to the UK, the Euro area, Japan and other industrialized economies, and the propagation to the real economy.

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  • TengTeng Xu, 2012. "The Role of Credit in International Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 12-36, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Interconnectedness and Spillover Analysis in Spain’s Financial System," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/344, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kopoin, Alexandre, 2015. "Cross-border Banking, Spillover Effects and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 65515, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.
    5. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    6. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    7. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    8. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Soklis, George & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 74-94.
    9. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    10. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
    11. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M. & Sohag, Kazi & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2020. "Equity market and money supply spillovers and economic growth in BRICS economies: A global vector autoregressive approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Econometric and statistical methods; International financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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