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Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • TengTeng Xu

Abstract

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology shocks, possibly leading to default by some firms. The paper advances a new modelling approach for the analysis of financial intermediation and firm defaults that takes account of the financial implications of such defaults for both households and banks. Results from a calibrated version of the model highlights the role of financial institutions in the transmission of credit and technology shocks to the real economy. A positive credit shock, defined as a rise in the loan to deposit ratio, increases output, consumption, hours and productivity, and reduces the spread between loan and deposit rates. The effects of the credit shock tend to be highly persistent even without price rigidities and habit persistence in consumption behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2011. "Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults," CESifo Working Paper Series 3609, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:161-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ivashchenko, S., 2013. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 27-50.
    3. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver, 2017. "Unexpected loan losses and bank capital in an estimated DSGE model of the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 161-186.
    4. Franziska Bremus, 2011. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Stability: What Role for Large Banks?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1178, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 375-389.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank credit; financial intermediation; firm heterogeneity and defaults; interest rate spread; real financial linkages;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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