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Unexpected Loan Losses and Bank Capital in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area

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  • Nikolay Hristov
  • Oliver Hülsewig

Abstract

We develop a stylized DSGE model in which banks face capital regulation and their loan portfolios are subject to non-diversifiable losses due to aggregate shocks. The framework is used to explore the importance of the interaction between macroeconomic conditions, credit default and bank capitalization for the transmission of macroeconomic shocks. We fit the model to euro area data. Impulse response analysis shows that the aforementioned interaction substantially magnifies the responsiveness of the economy to real and nominal demand side disturbances. The amplification is especially strong with respect to government spending shocks. The model is further capable of replicating two financial market characteristics that are documented in the empirical literature, i.e. the pro-cyclicality of bank profitability and the counter-cyclical response of firm default rates and credit spreads to monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig, 2016. "Unexpected Loan Losses and Bank Capital in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 6160, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6160
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; bank capital; aggregate loan losses; business cycle fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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