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Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

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  • Pesaran, M. H.
  • Xu, T.

Abstract

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology shocks, possibly leading to default by some firms. The paper advances a new modelling approach for the analysis of financial intermediation and firm defaults that takes account of the financial implications of such defaults for both households and banks. Results from a calibrated version of the model highlights the role of financial institutions in the transmission of credit and technology shocks to the real economy. A positive credit shock, defined as a rise in the loan to deposit ratio, increases output, consumption, hours and productivity, and reduces the spread between loan and deposit rates. The effects of the credit shock tend to be highly persistent even without price rigidities and habit persistence in consumption behaviour.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1159.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1159.

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Date of creation: 07 Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1159
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

Keywords: Bank Credit; Financial Intermediation; Firm Heterogeneity and Defaults; Interest Rate Spread; Real Financial Linkages.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
  • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 877-888, December.
  2. Luca Dedola & Stefano Neri, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 607, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
  4. Eric Mayer & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Bank Behaviour and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 98, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. David Aikman & Matthias Paustian, 2006. "Bank capital, asset prices and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 305, Bank of England.
  6. Thomas Helbling & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, . "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 2003_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2003.
  8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Fabio Canova & David Lopez-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2010. "The effects of technology shocks on hours and output: a robustness analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 755-773.
  10. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  11. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  13. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 04-6, Bank of Canada.
  14. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Alexius, Annika & Carlsson, Mikael, 2007. "Production function residuals, VAR technology shocks, and hours worked: Evidence from industry data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 259-263, August.
  16. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  17. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  18. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Financial intermediaries and monetary economics," Staff Reports 398, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Ivashchenko, S., 2013. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 27-50.
  2. Hylton Hollander & Guangling Liu, 2013. "The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking," Working Papers 16/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2014.
  3. Franziska Bremus, 2011. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Stability: What Role for Large Banks?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1178, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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