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Financial Shocks And The Real Economy In A Nonlinear World: From Theory To Estimation

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  • Andrea Silvestrini
  • Andrea Zaghini

Abstract

We examine the inter-linkages between financial factors and real economic activity. We review the main theoretical approaches that allow financial frictions to be embedded into general equilibrium models. We outline, from a policy perspective, the most recent empirical papers focusing on the propagation of exogenous shocks to the economy, with a particular emphasis on works dealing with time variation of parameters and other types of nonlinearities. We then present an application to the analysis of the changing transmission of financial shocks in the euro area. Results show that the effects of a financial shock are time-varying and contingent on the state of the economy. They are of negligible importance in normal times but they greatly matter in conditions of stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial Shocks And The Real Economy In A Nonlinear World: From Theory To Estimation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/910, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:15/910
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    6. Marina Yu. Malkina & Rodion V. Balakin, 2023. "The Relation of Financial and Industrial Stresses to Monetary Policy Parameters in the Russian Economy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 104-121, June.
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    9. Huang, MeiChi, 2024. "A greater crisis? Investigating MSA-level housing markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    11. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03498781, HAL.
    12. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    13. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    14. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03498781, HAL.
    15. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2021. "Macrofinancial linkages in Europe: Evidence from quantile local projections," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5557-5569, October.
    16. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
    17. Benedictow, Andreas & Hammersland, Roger, 2020. "A financial accelerator in the business sector of a macroeconometric model of a small open economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    18. Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2024. "The shape of the Treasury yield curve and commodity prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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    20. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; nonlinearities; financial shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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