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Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages

  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Ortega, Eva
  • Valderrama, Maria Teresa

We investigate heterogeneity and spillovers in macro-financial linkages across developed economies, with a particular emphasis in the most recent recession. A panel Bayesian VAR model including real and financial variables identifies a statistically significant common component, which turns out to be very significant during the most recent recession. Nevertheless, countryspecific factors remain important, which explains the heterogeneous behaviour across countries observed over time. Moreover, spillovers across countries and between real and financial variables are found to matter: A shock to a variable in a given country affects all other countries, and the transmission seems to be faster and deeper between financial variables than between real variables. Finally, shocks spill over in a heterogeneous way across countries. JEL Classification: C11, C33, E32, F44

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1498.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121498
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  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  4. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Economics Working Papers 1258, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2012.
  5. Matteo Ciccarelli & Fabio Canova, 2006. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 478, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  7. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  8. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2004. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0404, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," CAMA Working Papers 2013-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2012. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1520-1533.
  13. Christopher Otrok & Ayhan Kose & Mario J. Crucini, 2009. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles," 2009 Meeting Papers 820, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, . "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
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