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Credit and economic recovery

  • Michael Biggs
  • Thomas Mayer
  • Andreas Pick
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    It has become almost a stylized fact that after financial crises, economic activity recovers without a rebound in credit. We investigate the relationship between credit and economic activity over the business cycle. In a simple model we show that a rebound in the flow of credit has closer relationship with economic recovery than a rebound in the stock of credit. Using data from developed and emerging market countries we find that the flow of credit has a higher correlation with GDP than the stock of credit, in particular during recovery periods from financial crises.

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    File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20paper%20218_tcm46-220409.pdf
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    Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 218.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:218
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
    Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-44, May.
    2. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Jan F. Kiviet & Jerzy Niemczyk, 2006. "The Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distributions of OLS and Simple IV in Simultaneous Equations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-078/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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