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Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: From theory to estimation

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  • Silvestrini, Andrea
  • Zaghini, Andrea

Abstract

We examine the inter-linkages between financial factors and real economic activity. We review the main theoretical approaches that allow financial frictions to be embedded into general equilibrium models. We outline, from a policy perspective, the most recent empirical papers focusing on the propagation of exogenous shocks to the economy, with a particular emphasis on works dealing with time variation of parameters and other types of nonlinearities. We then present an application to the analysis of the changing transmission of financial shocks in the euro area. Results show that the effects of a financial shock are time-varying and contingent on the state of the economy. They are of negligible importance in normal times but they greatly matter in conditions of stress.

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  • Silvestrini, Andrea & Zaghini, Andrea, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: From theory to estimation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 915-929.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:6:p:915-929
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.09.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvestrini, Andrea & Zaghini, Andrea, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: From theory to estimation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 915-929.
    2. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    3. Fang, Guochang & Tian, Lixin & Fu, Min & Sun, Mei & Du, Ruijin & Lu, Longxi & He, Yu, 2017. "The effect of energy construction adjustment on the dynamical evolution of energy-saving and emission-reduction system in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 180-189.
    4. Meradj Mortezapouraghdam, 2016. "Three Essays on the Role of Frictions in the Economy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj8, Sciences Po.
    5. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    6. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    7. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
    8. Benedictow, Andreas & Hammersland, Roger, 2020. "A financial accelerator in the business sector of a macroeconometric model of a small open economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    9. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Nonlinearities; Financial shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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