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Labor market and financial shocks: a time varying analysis

Author

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  • Francesco Corsello

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Valerio Nispi Landi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Motivated by the events of the Great Recession, we estimate a time-varying structural VAR model to analyze the effects of a financial shock on the labor market, focusing on the US. Our results indicate that a tightening of financial conditions is highly detrimental to the labor market. Moreover, we show that financial shocks have affected the unemployment rate asymmetrically in the last three decades, an implication that a standard VAR cannot capture: while negative financial shocks have been responsible for increases in unemployment, our model does not find significant contributions of financial shocks during periods of expansion. The source of this asymmetry is the time-varying standard deviation of the identified shock, which is higher in times of financial distress; on the other hand, we find the transmission mechanism is almost constant over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2018. "Labor market and financial shocks: a time varying analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1179, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1179_18
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; labor market conditions; financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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