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Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Brave

    (Stanford University)

  • R. Andrew Butters

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

We approach the task of monitoring financial stability within a framework that balances the costs and benefits of identifying future crisis-like conditions based on past U.S. financial crises. Our results indicate that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is a highly predictive and robust indicator of financial stress at leading horizons of up to one year, with measures of leverage playing a crucial role in signaling financial imbalances. At longer forecast horizons, we propose an alternative sub-index of the NFCI that captures the relationship between non-financial leverage, financial stress, and economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2012. "Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 191-239, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:2:a:6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    2. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, June.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    5. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-43.
    6. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    7. Stacey L. Schreft, 1990. "Credit controls: 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 25-55.
    8. Scott Brave & Hesna Genay, 2011. "Federal Reserve policies and financial market conditions during the crisis," Proceedings 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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