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A financially stressed euro area

Listed author(s):
  • Kappler, Marcus
  • Schleer, Frauke
Registered author(s):

    The authors analyse 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress that are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a 'Periphery Banking Crisis' factor, a 'Stress' factor and a 'Yield Curve' factor seems to explain the bulk of volatility in recent euro area financial sector data. Moreover, by a real-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors-that reflect financial sector conditions-improves forecasts of economic activity at short horizons.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2017-6
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/156481/1/883822202.pdf
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    Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2017)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 1-37

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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20176
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    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    2. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
    3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    6. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    7. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2012. "A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1228-1241.
    8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    9. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    10. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    11. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2015. "Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 235-263.
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    13. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, 05.
    14. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-43.
    15. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    16. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1319-1347, October.
    17. Maximo Camacho & Agustin Garcia‐Serrador, 2014. "The Euro‐Sting Revisited: The Usefulness of Financial Indicators to Obtain Euro Area GDP Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 186-197, 04.
    18. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January.
    19. Jörg Breitung & Uta Pigorsch, 2013. "A Canonical Correlation Approach for Selecting the Number of Dynamic Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 23-36, 02.
    20. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2007. "Determining the Number of Factors in the General Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 603-617, June.
    21. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    22. Michiel Bijlsma & Gijsbert T. J. Zwart, 2013. "The changing landscape of financial markets in Europe, the United States and Japan," Working Papers 774, Bruegel.
    23. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Testing the Number of Factors: An Empirical Assessment for a Forecasting Purpose," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 64-79, 02.
    24. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2012. "Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 191-239, June.
    25. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
    26. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    27. repec:hal:journl:hal-00638009 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2010. "Improved penalization for determining the number of factors in approximate factor models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1806-1813, December.
    29. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
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