IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v29y2012i4p1228-1241.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Louzis, Dimitrios P.
  • Vouldis, Angelos T.

Abstract

The paper develops a financial systemic stress index (FSSI) for Greece. We present a novel methodology for constructing and evaluating a systemic stress index which i) adopts the suggestion of Hollo et al. (2012) [“CISS — A ‘Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress’ in the Financial System” ECB working paper] to incorporate time-varying correlations between different market segments, but uses a multivariate GARCH approach which is able to capture abrupt changes in correlations, shown to be a prerequisite for correctly identifying financial crises, ii) utilizes both market and balance sheet data which is a novel feature for systemic stress indicators and iii) evaluates the FSSI utilizing the results of a survey, conducted among financial experts, in order to construct a benchmark chronology of financial crises for Greece, which in turn is used to investigate whether changes in the FSSI are good leading indicators for financial crises. The results show that the FSSI is able to provide a precise periodization of crises. Our findings suggest that accurate depiction of the systematic nature of stress is pivotal in order to provide proper policy guidance with respect to financial crisis identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2012. "A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1228-1241.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1228-1241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312000818
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    4. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    5. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991. "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1992. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 115-130, August.
    7. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    9. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    11. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    13. Jokipii, Terhi & Monnin, Pierre, 2013. "The impact of banking sector stability on the real economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    15. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    16. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    18. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ben Bemanke & Harold James, 1991. "The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 33-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Miguel Morales & Dairo Estrada, 2010. "A financial stability index for Colombia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 555-581, October.
    23. Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2010. "Detecting and interpreting financial stress in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1214, European Central Bank.
    24. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    25. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, January.
    26. McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2009. "Are RiskMetrics forecasts good enough? Evidence from 31 stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 117-124, June.
    27. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
    28. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49 Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Subir Lall & Roberto Cardarelli & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2010. "Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions," Working Paper Series WP-2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    2. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    3. Wilmar Cabrera & Jorge Hurtado & Miguel Morales & Juan Sebastián Rojas, "undated". "A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 80, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Stress in European Banking Systems," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/19, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    6. repec:vls:finstu:v:20:y:2016:i:3:p:28-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Liao, Jui-Jung & Shih, Ching-Hui & Chen, Tai-Feng & Hsu, Ming-Fu, 2014. "An ensemble-based model for two-class imbalanced financial problem," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 175-183.
    8. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2013. "Measuring return and volatility spillovers in euro area financial markets," Working Papers 154, Bank of Greece.
    9. Caraiani, Petre, 2014. "The predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy for stock market dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 571-578.
    10. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    11. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01110688 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. MacDonald, Ronald & Sogiakas, Vasilios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2015. "An investigation of systemic stress and interdependencies within the Eurozone and Euro Area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 52-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Systemic stress; Stress index; Multivariate GARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1228-1241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.