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The impact of banking sector stability on the real economy

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  • Jokipii, Terhi
  • Monnin, Pierre

Abstract

This article studies the relationship between the degree of banking sector stability and the subsequent evolution of real output growth and inflation. Adopting a panel VAR methodology for a sample of 18 OECD countries, we find a positive link between banking sector stability and real output growth. This finding is predominantly driven by periods of instability rather than by very stable periods. In addition, we show that an unstable banking sector increases uncertainty about future output growth. No clear link between banking sector stability and inflation seems to exist. We then argue that the link between banking stability and real output growth can be used to improve output growth forecasts. Using Fed forecast errors, we show that banking sector stability (instability) results in a significant underestimation (overestimation) of GDP growth in the subsequent quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Jokipii, Terhi & Monnin, Pierre, 2013. "The impact of banking sector stability on the real economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    2. Stephen Oluwafemi Adeusi & Olufemi Adewale Aluko, 2015. "Relevance of Financial Sector Development on Real Sector Productivity: 21st Century Evidence from Nigerian Industrial Sector," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(6), pages 118-132, June.
    3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:01:p:4-32_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kabir, Md. Nurul & Worthington, Andrew C., 2017. "The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 111-128.
    5. repec:rss:jnljfe:v2i3p1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Angelos T. Vouldis, 2013. "A financial systemic stress index for Greece," Working Papers 155, Bank of Greece.
    7. repec:kap:regeco:v:53:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11149-017-9340-z is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, And The Banking–Macro Link: Theory And Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 4-32, January.
    9. Ashraf, Dawood & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & L’Huillier, Barbara, 2016. "A net stable funding ratio for Islamic banks and its impact on financial stability: An international investigation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 47-57.
    10. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2012. "A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1228-1241.
    11. Willi Semmler & Stefan Mittnik, 2012. "Estimating a Banking-Macro Model for Europe Using a Multi-Regime VAR," EcoMod2012 4122, EcoMod.
    12. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Heba Abdel Monem & Pilar Garcia Martinez, 2016. "Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region," IMF Working Papers 16/98, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Business cycles, monetary transmission and shocks to financial stability: empirical evidence from a new set of Danish quarterly national accounts 1948-2010," Working Paper Series 1458, European Central Bank.
    14. Alawin, M. & Al-Muhaissen, T. & Merza, E., 2013. "The Relationship between Real and Banking Sectors in Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 129-134.
    15. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:193-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wassim Rajhi, 2015. "Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: A Quantile Estimation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2846-2852.
    17. Brewer, Elijah & Deshmukh, Sanjay & Opiela, Timothy P., 2014. "Interest-rate uncertainty, derivatives usage, and loan growth in bank holding companies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 230-240.
    18. repec:eee:jebusi:v:96:y:2018:i:c:p:15-41 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking sector stability; Real output growth; Output growth forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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