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Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility

Listed author(s):
  • Oriol Aspachs
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
  • Lea Zicchino

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks' probabilities of default and banks' profits - to a proxy of welfare.

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File URL: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk/file_links/finecon_papers/2006fe04.pdf
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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2006fe04.

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Date of creation: 2006
Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2006fe04
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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  1. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  3. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, 01.
  4. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, 09.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  6. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
  7. Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2788.
  8. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  9. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 51(4), pages 757-775.
  10. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  11. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 496-521, October.
  12. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, January.
  13. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe15, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  14. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
  15. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
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