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Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility

  • Oriol Aspachs
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
  • Lea Zicchino

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks' probabilities of default and banks' profits - to a proxy of welfare.

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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2006fe04.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2006fe04
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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  1. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A time series analysis of financial fragility in the UK banking system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24778, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe15, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  3. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  4. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2003. "Loan Pricing Under Basel Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A risk assessment model for banks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24750, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  9. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24703, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-05, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  13. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  14. Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar, number 2788, 6.
  15. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
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