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Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility

  • Oriol Aspachs
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
  • Lea Zicchino

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks' probabilities of default and banks' profits - to a proxy of welfare.

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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2006fe04.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2006fe04
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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  1. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  2. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On modelling endogenous default," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24667, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  6. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A time series analysis of financial fragility in the UK banking system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24778, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  9. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2003. "Loan Pricing Under Basel Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar, number 2788.
  11. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," FMG Discussion Papers dp450, Financial Markets Group.
  12. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  13. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  15. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
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