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A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Goodhart
  • Pojanart Sunirand
  • Dimitrios Tsomocos

    ()

Abstract

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2003,2004a, b) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the U.K. banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors.
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Suggested Citation

  • Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:2:y:2006:i:1:p:1-21
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-005-0030-y
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10436-005-0030-y
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/223, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability - An Evidence from Indian Banking," MPRA Paper 49597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Agustín Saade & Daniel Osorio & Dairo Estrada, 2007. "An equilibrium approach to financial stability analysis: the Colombian case," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 75-105, January.
    4. Mizuho Kida, 2008. "A macro stress testing model with feedback effects," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, 2006. "A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 24(50), pages 242-271, Junio.
    6. Claudio E. V. Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2005. "Accounting, prudential regulation and financial stability: elements of a synthesis," BIS Working Papers 180, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Oriol Aspachs & Charles Goodhart & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2007. "Towards a measure of financial fragility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 37-74, January.
    9. Goodhart, C.A.E. & Sunirand, P. & Tsomocos, D.P., 2011. "The optimal monetary instrument for prudential purposes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 70-77, June.
    10. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
    11. Andreev, M. & Pil'nik, N. & Pospelov, I., 2009. "Rational Expectation Model of Modern Russian Banking System and the Strong Turnpike Property," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 72-96.
    12. C. Goodhart & M. Peiris & D. Tsomocos & A. Vardoulakis, 2010. "On dividend restrictions and the collapse of the interbank market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 455-473, October.
    13. Carlson Mark A & King Thomas & Lewis Kurt, 2011. "Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, June.
    14. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis," Working Paper Series 6806, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    15. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. David Pérez-Reyna, "undated". "Una aproximación para analizar la estabilidad financiera por medio de un DSGE," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 040, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Eric Tymoigne, 2010. "Detecting Ponzi Finance: An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_605, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial fragility; Systemic risk; UK banking system; Default;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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