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Rating systems, procyclicalilty and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework

  • Chiara Pederzoli
  • Costanza Torricelli

The introduction of Basel II has raised concerns about the potential impact of risk-sensitive capital requirements on the business cycle.� Several approaches have been proposed to assess the procyclicality issue.� In this paper, we adopt a general equilibrium model and conduct comprehensive analysis of different proposals.� We set out a model that allows to evaluate different rating systems in relation to the procyclicality issue.� Our model extends previous models by analysing the effects of different rating systems on banks' portfolios (as in Catarineu-Rabell et al. 2005) and the contagion effects relevant to financial stability (as in Goodhart et al. 2005).� The paper presents comparative statics results comparing a cycle-dependent and a neutral rating system from the point of view of banks profit maximization.� Our results suggest that banks' preferences about point in time or through the cycle rating systems depend on the banks' characteristics and on the business cycle conditions in terms of expectations and realizations.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2008fe27.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2008fe27
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  1. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A risk assessment model for banks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24750, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
  3. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
  4. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2002. "Procyclicality and the New Basel Accord: banks' choice of loan rating system," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  7. Jokivuolle , Esa & Vesala, Timo, 2007. "Portfolio effects and efficiency of lending under Basel II," Research Discussion Papers 13/2007, Bank of Finland.
  8. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects Of Basel Ii," Working Papers wp2008_0809, CEMFI.
  10. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
  11. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  12. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  13. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  14. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
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