IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cmf/wpaper/wp2008_0809.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Procyclical Effects of Basel II

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Repullo

    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

  • Javier Suarez

    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Abstract

We analyze the cyclical effects of moving from risk-insensitive (Basel I) to risk-sensitive (Basel II) capital requirements in the context of a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that the new regulation changes the behavior of these buffers from countercyclical to procyclical. Yet, the higher buffers maintained in expansions are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level behind Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects without compromising banks’ long-run solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," Working Papers wp2008_0809, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2008_0809
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/0809.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Repullo, Rafael & Elizalde, Abel, 2004. "Economic and Regulatory Capital: What is the Difference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Amengual, Dante & Sentana, Enrique, 2010. "A comparison of mean-variance efficiency tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 16-34, January.
    3. Roberto Serrano, 2007. "Cooperative Games: Core and Shapley Value," Working Papers wp2007_0709, CEMFI.
    4. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2008. "Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1398-1423, November.
    5. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini & Paolo Naticchioni, 2011. "Electoral Rules and Politicians' Behavior: A Micro Test," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 144-174, August.
    6. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009. "Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 105-121, December.
    7. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    8. L. Hospido, 2012. "Modelling heterogeneity and dynamics in the volatility of individual wages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 386-414, April.
    9. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Enrica Detragiache & Paolo Garella & Luigi Guiso, 2000. "Multiple versus Single Banking Relationships: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1133-1161, June.
    11. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    12. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. "Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-1087, September.
    13. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    14. Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2008. "An Economic Index of Riskiness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 810-836, October.
    15. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    16. Roberto Serrano & Antonio Cabrales, 2007. "Implementation in Adaptive Better-Response Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-10, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    17. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    18. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2010. "Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3638-3664, October.
    19. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
    20. Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
    21. Allan M. Feldman & Roberto Serrano, 2007. "Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem: Preference Diversity in a Single-Profile World," Working Papers wp2007_0710, CEMFI.
    22. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2431-2465, December.
    23. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April.
    24. Rene Saran & Roberto Serrano, 2007. "The Evolution of Bidding Behavior in Private-Values Auctions and Double Auctions," Working Papers wp2007_0712, CEMFI.
    25. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December.
    26. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    27. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    28. John R. Graham, 2000. "How Big Are the Tax Benefits of Debt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1901-1941, October.
    29. Jacob A. Bikker & Paul A. J. Metzemakers, 2007. "Is Bank Capital Procyclical? A Cross-Country Analysis," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 40(2), pages 225-264.
    30. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2005. "Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3159-3179, December.
    31. Alan Greenspan, 2002. "Cyclicality and banking regulation," Proceedings 800, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    32. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    33. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    34. José Cerón & Javier Suarez, 2006. "Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," Working Papers wp2006_0603, CEMFI.
    35. Zamarro, Gema, 2010. "Accounting for heterogeneous returns in sequential schooling decisions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 260-276, June.
    36. Cristina Lopez-Mayan, 2014. "Microeconometric Analysis of Residential Water Demand," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(1), pages 137-166, September.
    37. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    38. von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2004. "Asymmetric information, bank lending and implicit contracts: the winner's curse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 11-23, March.
    39. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    40. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 496-521, October.
    41. Enrique Sentana, 2009. "The econometrics of mean-variance efficiency tests: a survey," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 65-101, November.
    42. Lindquist, Kjersti-Gro, 2004. "Banks' buffer capital: how important is risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 493-513, April.
    43. Gerard Llobet & Michael Manove, 2006. "Network Size and Network Capture," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    44. Max Bruche, 2006. "Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices," Working Papers wp2006_0610, CEMFI.
    45. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    46. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March.
    47. Abel Elizalde & Rafael Repullo, 2007. "Economic and Regulatory Capital in Banking: What Is the Difference?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 87-117, September.
    48. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    49. Laura Crespo, 2006. "Caring for Parents and Employment Status of European Mid-Life Women," Working Papers wp2006_0615, CEMFI.
    50. Ayuso, Juan & Perez, Daniel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 249-264, April.
    51. Haibin Zhu, 2007. "Capital regulation and banks' financial decisions," BIS Working Papers 232, Bank for International Settlements.
    52. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Distributional Tests in Multivariate Dynamic Models with Normal and Student-t Innovations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 133-152, February.
    53. Samu Peura & Jussi Keppo, 2006. "Optimal Bank Capital with Costly Recapitalization," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 2163-2202, July.
    54. Anna Layne-Farrar & Gerard Llobet & A. Jorge Padilla, 2008. "Are Joint Negotiations in Standard Setting "reasonably Necessary"?," Working Papers wp2008_0808, CEMFI.
    55. Boot, Arnoud W. A., 2000. "Relationship Banking: What Do We Know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 7-25, January.
    56. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2007. "On the efficiency and consistency of likelihood estimation in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Working Paper series 38_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    57. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    2. Yusuke Kamishiro & Roberto Serrano, 2009. "Equilibrium blocking in large quasilinear economies," Working Papers 2009-12, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    3. Joan Llull, 2008. "The Impact of Immigration on Productivity," Working Papers wp2008_0802, CEMFI.
    4. Max Bruche, 2009. "Bankruptcy Codes, Liquidation Timing, and Debt Valuation," Working Papers wp2009_0902, CEMFI.
    5. Roberto Serrano, 2009. "On Watson's Non-Forcing Contracts and Renegotiation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2350-2360.
    6. Serrano, Roberto & Vohra, Rajiv, 2010. "Multiplicity of mixed equilibria in mechanisms: A unified approach to exact and approximate implementation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 775-785, September.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Lars Peter Hansen & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Underidentification? (Resumen)," Working Papers wp2009_0905, CEMFI.
    8. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2010. "Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3638-3664, October.
    9. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    10. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    11. Ines Drumond, 2009. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations And The Basel Accords: A Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 798-830, December.
    12. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Paul Wachtel, 2016. "Procyclical Capital Regulation and Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 919-956, April.
    13. Carletti, Elena & Cerasi, Vittoria & Daltung, Sonja, 2007. "Multiple-bank lending: Diversification and free-riding in monitoring," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 425-451, July.
    14. Kogler, Michael, 2016. "Optimal Bank Capital Regulation, the Real Sector, and the State of the Economy," Economics Working Paper Series 1615, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    15. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    16. David VanHoose, 2006. "Bank Behavior Under Capital Regulation: What Does The Academic Literature Tell Us?," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    17. Ambrocio, Gene & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2017. "Should bank capital requirements be less risk-sensitive because of credit constraints?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2017, Bank of Finland.
    18. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March.
    19. Varotto, Simone, 2012. "Stress testing credit risk: The Great Depression scenario," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3133-3149.
    20. Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2002. "Bank-Firm Relationships and International Banking Markets," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 401-417.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2008_0809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Araceli Requerey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemfies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.