IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence

  • Jose Ceron
  • Javier Suarez

    ()

    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

This paper examines the experience of fourteen developed countries for which there are about thirty years of quarterly inflation-adjusted housing price data. Price dynamics is modelled as a combination of a country-specific component and a cyclical component is a two-state variable captures previously undocumented changes in the volatility of real housing price increases. These volatility phases are quite persistent (about six years,on average) and occur with about the same unconditional frequency over time. In line with previous studies, the mean of real housing price increases can be predicted to be larger when lagged values of those increases are large, real GDP growth is high, unemployment falls, and interest rates are low or have declined. Our findings have important implications for risk management in regard to residential property markets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/0603.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2006_0603.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2006_0603
Contact details of provider: Postal: Casado del Alisal, 5, 28014 Madrid
Phone: 914290551
Fax: 914291056
Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Michelacci, Claudio & Silva, Olmo, 2006. "Why So Many Local Entrepreneurs?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Guillermo Caruana & Liran Einav, 2006. "Production Targets," NBER Working Papers 11958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Evans, David S & Padilla, Atilano Jorge, 2004. "Designing Antitrust Rules for Assessing Unilateral Practices: A Neo-Chicago Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 4625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Claudio Michelacci & David Lopez-Salido, 2004. "Technology Shocks And Job Flows," Working Papers wp2004_05, CEMFI.
  6. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  8. Marta González & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2005. "The Flat Tax Reform: A General Equilibrium Evaluation For Spain," Working Papers wp2005_0505, CEMFI.
  9. Javier Suarez & Andres Almazan & Sheridan Titman, 2004. "Stakeholders, Transparency And Capital Structure," Working Papers wp2004_0401, CEMFI.
  10. Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2004. "Spanning Tests in Return and Stochastic Discount Factor Mean Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 4422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Guillermo Caruana & Liran Einav & Daniel Quint, 2004. "Multilateral Bargaining With Concession Costs," Working Papers wp2004_0415, CEMFI.
  12. Javier Suarez & Samuel Bentolila & Claudio Michelacci, 2004. "Social Contacts and Occupational Choice," 2004 Meeting Papers 593, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Kühn, Kai-Uwe & Machado, Matilde Pinto, 2004. "Bilateral Market Power and Vertical Integration in the Spanish Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Repullo, Rafael, 2005. "Liquidity, Risk-Taking and the Lender of Last Resort," CEPR Discussion Papers 4967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. David S. Evans & A. Jorge Padilla, 2004. "Excessive Prices: Using Economics To Define Administrable Legal Rules," Working Papers wp2004_0416, CEMFI.
  16. David A. Marshall & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2004. "State-Contingent Bank Regulation With Unobserved Actionas And Unobserved Characteristics," Working Papers wp2004_0407, CEMFI.
  17. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion And Seller Behavior: Evidence From The Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260, November.
  18. Sven Rady & François Ortalo-Magné, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 470, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Thomas F Helbling, 2005. "Housing price bubbles - a tale based on housing price booms and busts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 30-41 Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Javier F. Mencia & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Estimation and testing of dynamic models with generalised hyperbolic innovations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  21. Gerard Llobet & Javier Suarez, 2005. "Financing And The Protection Of Innovators," Working Papers wp2005_0502, CEMFI.
  22. Englund, P. & Ioannides, Y.M., 1996. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Papers 1996-01, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  23. Claudio Michelacci & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2005. "Borrowing from Employees: Wage Dynamics with Financial Constraints," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 360-369, 04/05.
  24. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
  25. León, Ángel & Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2005. "Parametric Properties of Semi-Nonparametric Distributions, With Applications to Option Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  27. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2004. "Sequential Estimation Of Dynamic Discrete Games," Working Papers wp2004_0413, CEMFI.
  28. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2004. "Robust Likelihood Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers wp2004_0421, CEMFI.
  29. Sascha O. Becker & Samuel Bentolila & Ana Fernandes & Andrea Ichino, 2004. "Job Insecurity and Children's Emancipation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1144, CESifo Group Munich.
  30. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  31. Rafael Repullo, 2004. "Policies For Banking Crises: A Theoretical Framework," Working Papers wp2004_0418, CEMFI.
  32. Beatriz Domínguez & Juan José Ganuza & Gerard Llobet, 2005. "R&D in the pharmaceutical industry: A world of small innovations," Economics Working Papers 936, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  33. Edward Simpson Prescott, 2004. "Auditing and bank capital regulation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 47-63.
  34. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December.
  36. Abel Elizalde & Rafael Repullo, 2004. "Economic And Regulatory Capital. What Is The Difference?," Working Papers wp2004_0422, CEMFI.
  37. Enrique Sentana & Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2004. "Indirect Estimation Of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2004_0409, CEMFI.
  38. Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Downpayment Effects," NBER Working Papers 4373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  40. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  41. Ana Fernandes, 2004. "Knowledge, Technology Adoption And Financial Innovation," Working Papers wp2004_0408, CEMFI.
  42. Aleix Calveras & Juan-José Ganuza & Gerard Llobet, 2005. "Regulation And Opportunism: How Much Activism Do We Need?," Working Papers wp2005_0508, CEMFI.
  43. Capozza, Dennis R. & Mack, Charlotte & Hendershott, Patric H. & Mayer, Christopher J., 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  44. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  45. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90.
  46. Manuel Arellano & Jinyong Hahn, 2005. "Understanding Bias In Nonlinear Panel Models: Some Recent Developments," Working Papers wp2005_0507, CEMFI.
  47. Juan J. Dolado & Vanesa Llorens, 2004. "Gender Wage Gaps By Education In Spain: Glass Floors Vs. Glass Ceilings," Working Papers wp2004_03, CEMFI.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2006_0603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Araceli Requerey)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.