IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/econwp/qt0n71m1ch.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Production Targets

Author

Listed:
  • Caruana, Guillermo
  • Einav, Liran

Abstract

We present a dynamic quantity setting game, where players may continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. These costs allow players to use quantity targets as a partial commitment device. We show that the equilibrium path of such a game is hump-shaped and that the final equilibrium outcome is more competitive than its static analog. We then test the theory using monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers during 1965-1995 and show that the hump-shaped dynamic pattern is present in the data. Initially, production targets steadily increase until they peak about 2-3 months before production. Then, they gradually decline to eventual production levels. This qualitative pattern is fairly robust across a range of similar exercises. We conclude that strategic considerations play a role in the planning phase in the auto industry, and that static models may therefore under-estimate the industry’s competitiveness.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Caruana, Guillermo & Einav, Liran, 2005. "Production Targets," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0n71m1ch, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt0n71m1ch
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/0n71m1ch.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saloner, Garth, 1987. "Cournot duopoly with two production periods," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 183-187, June.
    2. Reynolds, Stanley S., 1991. "Dynamic oligopoly with capacity adjustment costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 491-514, July.
    3. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1984. "The Fat-Cat Effect, the Puppy-Dog Ploy, and the Lean and Hungry Look," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 361-366, May.
    4. James A. Kahn, 1992. "Why is Production More Volatile than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 481-510.
    5. Maura P. Doyle & Christopher M. Snyder, 1999. "Information Sharing and Competition in the Motor Vehicle Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1326-1364, December.
    6. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
    7. Ernst R. Berndt & Ann F. Friedlaender & Judy Shaw-Er Wang Chiang, 1990. "Interdependent Pricing and Markup Behavior: An Empirical Analysis of GM, Ford and Chrysler," NBER Working Papers 3396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Romano, Richard & Yildirim, Huseyin, 2005. "On the endogeneity of Cournot-Nash and Stackelberg equilibria: games of accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 73-107, January.
    9. Lapham, Beverly & Ware, Roger, 1994. "Markov puppy dogs and related animals," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-593, December.
    10. R. M. Cyert & M. H. DeGroot, 1970. "Multiperiod Decision Models with Alternating Choice as a Solution to the Duopoly Problem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 410-429.
    11. Kydland, Finn, 1975. "Noncooperative and Dominant Player Solutions in Discrete Dynamic Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 321-335, June.
    12. Guillermo Caruana & Liran Einav, 2008. "A Theory of Endogenous Commitment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(1), pages 99-116.
    13. Fershtman, Chaim & Kamien, Morton I, 1987. "Dynamic Duopolistic Competition with Sticky Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1151-1164, September.
    14. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 593-624.
    15. Jun, Byoung & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Strategic incentives in dynamic duopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 249-281, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wirl, Franz, 2010. "Dynamic demand and noncompetitive intertemporal output adjustments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 220-229, May.
    2. Vernasca, Gianluigi, 2003. "Dynamic Price Competition With Price Adjustment Costs And Product Differentiation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 681, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2001. "Aggregate Pattern of Time-dependent Adjustment Rules, II: Strategic Complementarity and Endogenous Nonsynchronization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 199-231, June.
    4. Vives, Xavier & Jun, Byoung, 2001. "Incentives in Dynamic Duopoly," CEPR Discussion Papers 2899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jun, Byoung & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Strategic incentives in dynamic duopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 249-281, June.
    6. Gianluigi Vernasca, 2003. "Dynamic Price Competition with Price Adjustment Costs and Product Differentiation," Working Papers 2003.120, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy, 2009. "Oligopsonistic Cats and Dogs," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 35(3), pages 257-274, November.
    8. Caputo, Michael R. & Ling, Chen, 2013. "The intrinsic comparative dynamics of locally differentiable feedback Nash equilibria of autonomous and exponentially discounted infinite horizon differential games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1982-1994.
    9. Dutta, Rohan & Ishii, Ryosuke, 2016. "Dynamic commitment games, efficiency and coordination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 699-727.
    10. Franz Wirl, 2024. "Dynamic demand and noncompetitive intertemporal output adjustments: correction and extension," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 32(2), pages 483-505, June.
    11. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Escobar, Juan F., 2019. "Protocol invariance and the timing of decisions in dynamic games," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), May.
    12. Maura P. Doyle & Christopher M. Snyder, 1999. "Information Sharing and Competition in the Motor Vehicle Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1326-1364, December.
    13. Vernasca, Gianluigi, 2003. "Dynamic Price Competition with Price Adjustment Costs and Product Differentiation," Economic Research Papers 269565, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    14. Colombo, Luca & Labrecciosa, Paola, 2015. "On the Markovian efficiency of Bertrand and Cournot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 332-358.
    15. Kovác, Eugen & Vinogradov, Viatcheslav & Zigic, Kresimir, 2010. "Technological leadership and persistence of monopoly under endogenous entry: Static versus dynamic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1421-1441, August.
    16. Luca Colombo & Paola Labrecciosa & Agnieszka Rusinowska, 2025. "A dynamic analysis of criminal networks," Post-Print hal-04850675, HAL.
    17. Slade, Margaret E., 1999. "Sticky prices in a dynamic oligopoly: An investigation of (s,S) thresholds," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 477-511, May.
    18. Lambertini, Luca & Mantovani, Andrea, 2014. "Feedback equilibria in a dynamic renewable resource oligopoly: Pre-emption, voracity and exhaustion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 115-122.
    19. Mujumdar, Sudesh & Pal, Debashis, 2007. "Strategic managerial incentives in a two-period Cournot duopoly," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 338-353, February.
    20. Sébastien Mitraille & Michel Moreaux, 2013. "Inventories and Endogenous Stackelberg Leadership in Two‐Period Cournot Oligopoly," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 852-874, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt0n71m1ch. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibbrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.