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How housing slumps end
[Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time: data and analysis]

Author

Listed:
  • Agustín S. Bénétrix
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Kevin H. O'Rourke

Abstract

We construct a simple model of the end of housing slumps. We show that the probability that real housing prices stop falling is higher the smaller was the pre-slump house price run-up; the greater has been the cumulative house price decline, the faster is GDP growth, and, most importantly, the lower are mortgage interest rates. Slumps are longer where the construction sector is more responsive, allowing booms to create larger supply overhangs, but shorter the more developed are financial markets and institutions, enabling new buyers to access credit and enter the market. Falling house prices can lead to lower private sector credit flows, in turn limiting the scope for new home purchases and creating the danger of a vicious spiral of slumping housing prices and distressed financial institutions. This suggests that policymakers should take steps to break the link between the housing market problems and banking problems by intervening to recapitalize distressed banking systems while using quantitative easing and credit easing to lower mortgage interest rates and help revive the housing market directly.— Agustín S. Bénétrix, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O'Rourke

Suggested Citation

  • Agustín S. Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2012. "How housing slumps end [Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time: data and analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 647-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:27:y:2012:i:72:p:647-692.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00292.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Coen Teulings, 2014. "Unemployment and house price crises: Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Dutch Recession," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    3. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2014. "Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economic Policy Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
    4. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Why are Irish house prices still falling?," Economic Letters 05/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20122, March.
    6. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    7. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2011/Spring 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20121, March.
    8. Monnet, Eric & Wolf , Clara, 2017. "Demographic cycles, migration and housing investment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-49.
    9. Crossley, Thomas F. & Levell, Peter & Low, Hamish, 2024. "House price rises and borrowing to invest," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 86-105.
    10. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2012. "The Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(2-Summer).
    11. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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