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How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries

  • Bracke, Philippe

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40years for 19 OECD countries. Both upturns and downturns display duration dependence: they are more likely to end as their duration increases. Downturns display also lagged duration dependence: they are less likely to end if the previous upturn was particularly long. These patterns are consistent with a boom-bust view of housing price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain and busts serve as readjustment periods. Findings are robust to the inclusion of macroeconomic variables, which allow for the estimation of additional determinants of house price expansions and contractions.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137713000326
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 213-230

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:22:y:2013:i:3:p:213-230
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2013.06.001
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

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