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Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices


  • Shiller Robert J.


Robert Shiller looks at over 100 years of data and asks the question every homeowner wants to know: what is the short-term and long-term prognosis for real estate values? The news isn't reassuring, but luckily risk markets are being developed to help people hedge or buy insurance against the risk that Shiller unveils.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:3:y:2006:i:4:n:4

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2003. "Public Investment and the Risk Premium for Equity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(277), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Weil, Philippe, 1992. "Equilibrium asset prices with undiversifiable labor income risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 769-790.
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    6. Stiglitz, J.E., 1989. "Using Tax Policy To Curb Speculative Short-Term Trading," Papers t2, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    7. Arrow, Kenneth J & Lind, Robert C, 1970. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 364-378, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2008. "Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 243-260.
    2. Kang, Hsin-Hong & Liu, Shu-Bing, 2014. "The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on housing prices in China and Taiwan: A quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 356-362.
    3. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    4. Giglio, Stefano & Maggiori, Matteo & Stroebel, Johannes, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Sun Wei & Triest Robert K. & Webb Anthony, 2008. "Optimal Retirement Asset Decumulation Strategies: The Impact of Housing Wealth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, September.
    6. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    7. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
    8. David A. Love & Paul A. Smith & Lucy C. McNair, 2008. "A New Look At The Wealth Adequacy Of Older U.S. Households," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 616-642, December.
    9. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    10. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    11. Tom Nicholas & Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 278-309, June.
    12. Kelly, Morgan, 2007. "On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(2-Summer), pages 42-54.
    13. Ott, Hervé, 2014. "Will euro area house prices sharply decrease?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-127.
    14. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    15. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    16. Andreas Horsch, 2012. "Managerial Action And Financial Crisis," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 5(1), pages 7-33, June.
    17. Diks, Cees & Wang, Juanxi, 2016. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 68-88.
    18. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    19. Shi, Song & Jou, Jyh-Bang & Tripe, David, 2014. "Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-28.
    20. Craig Depken & Harris Hollans & Steve Swidler, 2009. "An Empirical Analysis of Residential Property Flipping," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 248-263, October.
    21. Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indexes," Papers 0704.0589,
    22. Wang, J., 2015. "Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    23. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF58, Tinbergen Institute.

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