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Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies

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  • Markus K. Brunnermeier
  • Christian Julliard

Abstract

A reduction in inflation can fuel run-ups in housing prices if people suffer from money illusion. For example, investors who decide whether to rent or buy a house by simply comparing monthly rent and mortgage payments do not take into account that inflation lowers future real mortgage costs. We decompose the price-rent ratio in a rational component -- meant to capture the proxy effect and risk premia -- and an implied mispricing. We find that inflation and nominal interest rates explain a large share of the time-series variation of the mispricing, and that the tilt effect is unlikely to rationalize this finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," NBER Working Papers 12810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12810
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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