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Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behavior in the Presence of Money Illusion

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  • Basak, Suleyman
  • Yan, Hongjun

Abstract

This article analyzes the implications of money illusion for investor behavior and asset prices in a securities market economy with inflationary fluctuations. We provide a belief-based formulation of money illusion which accounts for the systematic mistakes in evaluating real and nominal quantities. The impact of money illusion on security prices and their dynamics is demonstrated to be considerable even though its welfare cost on investors is small in typical environments. A money-illusioned investor's real consumption is shown to generally depend on the price level, and specifically to decrease in the price level. A general-equilibrium analysis in the presence of money illusion generates implications that are consistent with several empirical regularities. In particular, the real bond yields and dividend price ratios are positively related to expected inflation, the real short rate is negatively correlated with realized inflation, and money illusion may induce predictability and excess volatility in stock returns. The basic analysis is generalized to incorporate heterogeneous investors with differing degrees of illusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Basak, Suleyman & Yan, Hongjun, 2009. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behavior in the Presence of Money Illusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 7398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7398
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariko SHIMIZU, 2019. "Why do high ability people also suffer from money illusion? Experimental evidence of behavioral contradiction," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(618), S), pages 5-22, Spring.
    2. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    3. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. repec:agr:journl:v:1(618):y:2019:i:1(618):p:5-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    6. Vincze, János, 2018. "Szubsztantív vagy ökológiai racionalitás?. A pénzillúzió esete [Substantive or ecological rationality?. A case of the money illusion]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1097-1114.
    7. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2020. "Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1635-1672, June.
    8. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2015. "Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets: A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-fulfilling Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 21528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2018. "Disappearing money illusion," CREATES Research Papers 2018-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Miao, Jianjun & Xie, Danyang, 2013. "Economic growth under money illusion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 84-103.
    12. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    13. Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Hailong & Cheng, Fengchao & Hu, Duni, 2018. "How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    14. Cvitanic, Jaksa & Malamud, Semyon, 2011. "Price impact and portfolio impact," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 201-225, April.
    15. Jianjun Miao & Danyang Xie, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Money Illusion," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2007-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2016. "The predictive power of dividend yields for future infl?ation: Money illusion or rational causes?," CREATES Research Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
    18. Ryu‐ichiro Murota, 2018. "Aggregate demand deficiency, labor unions, and long‐run stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 868-888, November.
    19. Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1047-1059, July.
    20. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Bounded Rationality; Equilibrium; Expected Inflation; Money Illusion; New Keynesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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