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Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behavior in the Presence of Money Illusion

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  • Suleyman Basak
  • Hongjun Yan

Abstract

This article analyzes the implications of money illusion for investor behavior and asset prices in a securities market economy with inflationary fluctuations. We provide a belief-based formulation of money illusion which accounts for the systematic mistakes in evaluating real and nominal quantities. The impact of money illusion on security prices and their dynamics is demonstrated to be considerable even though its welfare cost on investors is small in typical environments. A money-illusioned investor's real consumption is shown to generally depend on the price level, and specifically to decrease in the price level. A general-equilibrium analysis in the presence of money illusion generates implications that are consistent with several empirical regularities. In particular, the real bond yields and dividend price ratios are positively related to expected inflation, the real short rate is negatively correlated with realized inflation, and money illusion may induce predictability and excess volatility in stock returns. The basic analysis is generalized to incorporate heterogeneous investors with differing degrees of illusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Suleyman Basak & Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behavior in the Presence of Money Illusion," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2402, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:amz2402
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    File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2402
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    2. Cvitanic, Jaksa & Malamud, Semyon, 2011. "Price impact and portfolio impact," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 201-225, April.
    3. Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1047-1059, July.
    4. Shengxing Zhang & Ricardo Lagos, 2016. "Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 1569, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    6. Jianjun Miao & Danyang Xie, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Money Illusion," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2007-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. Miao, Jianjun & Xie, Danyang, 2013. "Economic growth under money illusion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 84-103.
    8. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2016. "The predictive power of dividend yields for future infl?ation: Money illusion or rational causes?," CREATES Research Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
    11. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2015. "Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets: A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-fulfilling Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 21528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:167-192 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Illusion; Asset Pricing; New Keynesian; Bounded Rationality; Equilibrium; Expected Inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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