IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2730.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives

Author

Listed:
  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

This paper presents calculations of the utility cost to consumers of following alternative decision rules in the environments specified by tests of the intertemporal allocation of consumption on aggregate data. The alternatives include excess and inadequate sensitivity to income and interest rate changes and ignoring information. The calculations find that the costs of large deviations from the optimal decision rule--consumption equal to current income, for example--are on the order of l cent to $1 per quarter. They are interpreted to suggest that the theory does not make predictions that are robust to small inaccuracies of modeling, including small costs of transactions and information, and that those small costs can account for rejections of the theory as it is applied to aggregate US data.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 1988. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2730
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2730.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1985. "Trends, random walks, and tests of the permanent income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 165-174, September.
    4. Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296.
    5. George A. Akerlof, 1979. "Irving Fisher on his Head: The Consequences of Constant Threshold-Target Monitoring of Money Holdings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(2), pages 169-187.
    6. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 1987. "Substitution, Risk Aversion and the Temporal Behaviour of Consumption and Asset Returns II: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper 698, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Jones, Stephen R G & Stock, James H, 1987. "Demand Disturbances and Aggregate Fluctuations: The Implications of Near Rationality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 49-64, March.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1987. "Is Consumption Too Smooth?," NBER Working Papers 2134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Induced uncertainty, market price of risk, and the dynamics of consumption and wealth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-41.
    2. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2010. "Risk-Sensitive Consumption and Savings under Rational Inattention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 281-325, October.
    3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    5. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    6. Ostergaard, C. & Sorensen, B.E. & Yosha, O., 1998. "Permanent Income, Consumption, and Aggregate Constraints: Evidence from US States," Papers 02-98, Tel Aviv.
    7. Gesteira Costa, Marcos & Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique, 2015. "Testing the Optimality of Consumption Decisions of the Representative Household: Evidence from Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(3), September.
    8. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric, 2013. "Consumption, Market Price of Risk, and Wealth Accumulation under Induced Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 50998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Päivi Kankaanranta, 2006. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle: A Selected Literature Review," Discussion Papers 7, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    10. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    11. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Marshall, David, 1991. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 397-423, March.
    13. Laura Serlenga, 2002. "Three Alternative Approaches to Test the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Dynamic Panels," SERIES 0005, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Feb 2002.
    14. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Issler, João Victor, 2017. "Testing Consumption Optimality Using Aggregate Data," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1119-1140, July.
    15. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2002. "Long-Run Relationship between Consumption and Income in Japan: Tests of the Deterministic Cointegration Restriction," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278, June.
    16. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1992. "Information-Aggregation Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 508-519, June.
    17. West, Kenneth D., 1988. "The insensitivity of consumption to news about income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-33, January.
    18. Gilbert Colletaz & Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1990. "Coïntégration et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712.
    19. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2003. "Consumer Response to Tax Rebates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 381-396, March.
    20. Tolar, Martin Michael, 1997. "A behavioral model of nondurable consumption expenditure," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 291-302.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2730. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.