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Housing Return and Construction Cycles


  • Matthew Spiegel


This paper presents a general equilibrium model of the residential housing market. Within the model housing returns, housing construction, mortgage loan terms, and household maintenance behavior are all endogenous. These interacting elements tie expected housing returns to expected changes in family wealth. As a result: (1) families are credit constrained; (2) mortgage loan-to-value ratios can be used to forecast future housing returns; (3) developers acquire land when expected housing returns lie above the rate of interest and then develop when housing returns lie below. Thus, their holdings and construction decisions also forecast housing returns. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Spiegel, 2001. "Housing Return and Construction Cycles," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 521-551.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:4:p:521-551

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sally M. Davies & Douglas A. McManus, 1991. "The effects of closure policies on bank risk-taking," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 158, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Flannery, Mark J., 1989. "Capital regulation and insured banks choice of individual loan default risks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 235-258, September.
    3. Frederick T. Furlong & Michael C. Keeley, 1987. "Bank capital regulation and asset risk," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 20-40.
    4. Furlong, Frederick T. & Keeley, Michael C., 1989. "Capital regulation and bank risk-taking: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 883-891, December.
    5. Davies, Sally M. & McManus, Douglas A., 1991. "The effects of closure policies on bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 917-938, September.
    6. Chan, Yuk-Shee & Kanatas, George, 1985. "Asymmetric Valuations and the Role of Collateral in Loan Agreements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 84-95, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    2. Clapp, John M. & Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Wong, S.K., 2012. "Empirical estimation of the option premium for residential redevelopment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 240-256.
    3. Christopher J. Mayer & Tomasz Piskorski & Alexei Tchistyi, 2010. "The Inefficiency of Refinancing: Why Prepayment Penalties Are Good for Risky Borrowers," NBER Working Papers 16586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.

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