IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v79y1989i1p125-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes

Author

Listed:
  • Case, Karl E
  • Shiller, Robert J

Abstract

Tests of the efficiency of single family home prices are performed using repeat sales prices of 39,210 individual homes in Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco/Oakland for 1970-86. The market does not appear to be efficient. Year-to-year changes in prices tend to be followed by changes in the same direction in the subsequent year. Moreover, information about real interest rates does not appear to be incorporated in prices. There is, thus, a profitable trading rule for persons who are free to time the purchase of their homes. Still, overall, individual housing price changes are not very forecastable. Copyright 1989 by American Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:79:y:1989:i:1:p:125-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198903%2979%3A1%3C125%3ATEOTMF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-E&origin=repec
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linneman, Peter, 1986. "An empirical test of the efficiency of the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 140-154, September.
    2. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Gau, George W, 1984. "Weak Form Tests of the Efficiency of Real Estate Investment Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 301-320, November.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Lilien, David M. & Watson, Mark, 1985. "A dymimic model of housing price determination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-326, June.
    6. George W. Gau, 1985. "Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 15-31.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:79:y:1989:i:1:p:125-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.