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Housing market cycles and duration dependence in the United States and Canada

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  • Rose Cunningham
  • Ilan Kolet

Abstract

Housing wealth is a large component of households' total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this article, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the US and Canada. Using a panel of 137 cities, we examine the duration and characteristics of housing market cycles in North America. We find that North American housing cycles are long, averaging 5 years of expansion and 4 years of contraction. We estimate a discrete time survival model with a probit specification for house price expansions and contractions. This model allows us to test for duration dependence. We find that US housing market expansions have positive duration dependence since their exit probabilities increase with duration, while contractions seem to have no duration dependence. Canadian house price cycles did not exhibit duration dependence. Standard determinants of house prices (interest rates, income and population growth) are included as controls.

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  • Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2011. "Housing market cycles and duration dependence in the United States and Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 569-586.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:5:p:569-586
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802584927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Andr頍 & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2127-2138, June.
    2. Kyriazakou, Eleni & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2017. "Causality analysis of the Canadian city house price indices: A cross-sample validation approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 42-52.
    3. Castroa, Vitor & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Duration dependence and change-points in the likelihood of credit booms ending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6475, The World Bank.
    4. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 607-670, November.
    5. Alberto Madrid & Luis A. Hierro, 2015. "Burbujas especulativas: el estado de una cuestión poco estudiada," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 38(108), pages 123-138, Septiembr.
    6. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    7. Kishor, N. Kundan & Kumari, Swati & Song, Suyong, 2015. "Time variation in the relative importance of permanent and transitory components in the U.S. housing market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 92-99.
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2016. "A Note On Banking And Housing Crises And The Strength Of Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1924-1933, October.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2020. "Are cyclical patterns of international housing markets interdependent?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 14-24.
    11. Rots, Eyno, 2017. "Imperfect information and the house price in a general-equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 215-231.
    12. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
    13. de Bruijn, L.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2015. "Stochastic levels and duration dependence in US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Maryam Akbari Nasiri, 2020. "How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis For Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(2), pages 179-200, June.
    15. Castroa, Vitor & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Duration dependence and change-points in the likelihood of credit booms ending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6475, The World Bank.
    16. Mérő, Bence & Borsos, András & Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Oláh, Zsolt & Vágó, Nikolett, 2023. "A high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    17. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Booms, Busts, and Normal Times in the Housing Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 25-45, January.

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