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Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data

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  • Kajuth, Florian
  • Knetsch, Thomas A.
  • Pinkwart, Nicolas

Abstract

Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market we estimate the relationship of house prices and explanatory macroeconomic variables in Germany using a regional panel dataset for 402 administrative districts. Using regional data exploits the variation across local housing markets and overcomes time-series data limitations. We take the regression residuals as a measure for deviations of actual house prices from their fundamental equilibrium level. The model specification allows to aggregate district-level residuals for various regional subsets. During the past two years for Germany as a whole single-family house prices appeared to be in line with their fundamental equilibrium level, whereas apartment prices significantly exceeded the fundamental price suggested by the model. The overvaluation of apartments is higher in towns and cities and most pronounced in the major seven cities, while single-family houses in cities appear to be only moderately above their fundamental levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kajuth, Florian & Knetsch, Thomas A. & Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2013. "Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data," Discussion Papers 46/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:462013
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    2. Oestmann Marco & Bennöhr Lars, 2015. "Determinants of house price dynamics. What can we learn from search engine data?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 99-127, April.
    3. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2018. "Speculative price bubbles in urban housing markets," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1957-1983.
    4. Bienert, Sven & Sebastian, Steffen P. & Just, Tobias, . "Niedrigzinsumfeld und die Auswirkungen auf die Immobilienwirtschaft," Beiträge zur Immobilienwirtschaft, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, number 8.
    5. Lerbs, Oliver & Hiller, Norbert, 2015. "Aging and Urban House Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113136, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Laurynas Narusevicius & Tomas Ramanauskas & Laura Gudauskaitė & Tomas Reichenbachas, 2019. "Lithuanian house price index: modelling and forecasting," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 28, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Hana Hejlová & Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, 2017. "A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 269-285.
    8. Engerstam, Sviatlana, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of apartment prices in Swedish and German cities," Working Paper Series 20/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    9. Darius Kulikauskas, 2015. "Measuring fundamental housing prices in the Baltic States: empirical approach," ERES eres2015_31, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    10. Hana Hejlová & Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, . "A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    11. Lenarčič, Črt & Damjanović, Milan, 2015. "Slovene Residential Property Prices Misalignment with Fundamentals," MPRA Paper 101198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jan R. Kim & Gieyoung Lim, 2018. "A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 289-301, December.
    13. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    14. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    16. Ch. Warisse, 2017. "Analysis of the developments in residential property prices : Is the Belgian market overvalued ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 61-77, June.
    17. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa15p67, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fundamental house prices; regional house prices; housing demand and supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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