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Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR

Listed author(s):
  • Vansteenkiste, Isabel
  • Hiebert, Paul
Registered author(s):

    This paper empirically assesses the prospects for house price spillovers in the euro area, where co-movement in house prices across countries may be particularly relevant given a general trend with monetary union toward increasing linkages in trade, financial markets, and general economic conditions. A global VAR is estimated for three housing demand variables (real house prices, real per capita income, and the cost of borrowing, captured by a real long-term interest rate) on the basis of quarterly data for 7 euro area countries (Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands), which together comprise nearly 90% of euro area GDP, over the period 1971–2009. The results suggest limited house price spillovers in the euro area, albeit with evidence of some overshooting in the first year after the shock, followed by a long run aggregate euro area impact of country-specific changes in real house prices related in part to the country’s economic weight. This contrasts with the impacts of a shock to domestic long-term interest rates, causing a permanent shift in house prices after 2–3 years. Underlying this aggregate development are rather heterogeneous house price spillovers at the country level, with a strong importance for weights – either economic or geographic – in governing their general magnitude. More generally, the impact of financing costs on house prices appears to have grown though time.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137711000453
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 299-314

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:20:y:2011:i:4:p:299-314
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2011.08.003
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

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    1. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
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