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Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting

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  • Vansteenkiste, Isabel

Abstract

In this paper, we seek to quantify the importance of state-level housing price spillovers and interest rate shocks to house price developments in the United States. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) as presented in Dées, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) and Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) to the 31 biggest US states over the period 1986-2005. Such an approach allows not only for the empirical derivation of the impact of common shocks (such as interest rate shocks) on US house price developments, but also for an analysis of the importance of interstate housing price spillovers. Beyond real house prices and real income per capita, each state-specific vector error correction model also includes nation-wide variables - measured as a weighted average of other states -. These individual state models are then linked in a consistent and cohesive manner. Impact elasticities indicate strong interregional linkages for both real house prices and real income per capita. An analysis of generalised impulse responses indicates that the importance of housing price spillovers is state dependent, with shocks occurring in states with relatively lower land supply elasticities having much stronger spillover effects that those in the other states. As regards real interest rates, the impact appears to be relatively small with an increase of 100 basis points in the real 10-year government bond yield resulting in a long run fall in house prices of between 0.5 and 2.5%. This would suggest, in line with DelNegro and Otrok (2005) that the decline in long-term interest rates is not the primary factor that has driven the recent surge in house prices in the United States. JEL Classification: C32, E44, R10, R31

Suggested Citation

  • Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 708, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007708
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    2. Füss, Roland & Zietz, Joachim, 2016. "The economic drivers of differences in house price inflation rates across MSAs," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-53.
    3. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    4. Hiebert, Paul & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "Do house price developments spill over across euro area countries? Evidence from a Global VAR," Working Paper Series 1026, European Central Bank.
    5. Hany Abdel-Latif & Tapas Mishra & Anita Staneva, 2015. "Arab Countries Between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!," Working Papers 954, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    6. TengTeng Xu, 2012. "The Role of Credit in International Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 12-36, Bank of Canada.
    7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    8. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    10. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    11. Bettendorf, Timo, 2016. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the euro: A GVAR approach," Discussion Papers 42/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Favero, Carlo A., 2013. "Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 343-356.
    13. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
    14. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    15. MeiChi Huang, 2012. "Forecasts and implications of the current housing crisis: switching regimes in a threshold framework," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 557-568, April.
    16. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances -super-1," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1140-1174, September.
    17. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    18. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Asian Economies," Discussion papers 17009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    20. Yan M Sun & Frigyes F Heinz & Giang Ho, 2013. "Cross-Country Linkages in Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 13/194, International Monetary Fund.
    21. MeiChi Huang, 2014. "Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 589-608, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global VAR (GVAR).; housing; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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