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Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

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  • Quah, Danny T

Abstract

This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state-- regardless of which it happens to be--contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a "wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 137-159.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:21:y:1996:i:1:p:137-59
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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