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Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

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  • Quah, Danny

Abstract

This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state (regardless of which it happens to be) contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a `wave' of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Quah, Danny, 1995. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1236
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    Keywords

    Aggregate Disturbance; Business Cycle; Distribution Dynamics; Regional Fluctuation; Stochastic Kernel;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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