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Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?

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  • Christophe Blot

Abstract

Les interrogations autour de l'évolution des prix de l'immobilier au Luxembourg sont récurrentes. Elles sont justifiées par l'augmentation régulière des prix. Aussi, on peut se demander si cette évolution est dictée par celle des fondamentaux ou si les prix de l'immobilier sont caractérisés par une bulle spéculative. Il ressort de l'analyse que la dynamique des prix à long terme est influencée par des facteurs d'offre et de demande. Selon que l'on considère le marché de l'immobilier résidentiel, non résidentiel ou non bâti, nous montrons que les coûts de construction, la croissance économique et démographique, la politique monétaire et les développements sur le marché des crédits contribuent à l'évolution des prix. Néanmoins, les limites inhérentes aux méthodes utilisées pour tester la présence de bulle permettent rarement d'exclure définitivement l'hypothèse de bulles épisodiques qui se développent puis éclatent.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marché immobilier; bulle spéculative; analyse dynamique;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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