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  • Eric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau
  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Gaël Dupont
  • Olivier Brossard

[eng] Net. growth Forecast for the French economy in 2000 and 2001 Division economie francaise The GDP growth is expected to reach 4,2 % and 3,8 % in 2000 and 2001 respectively. Private consumption growth will stay high, being sustained by ample job creations, by present and advertised tax reductions and by an easy access to credit. Net exports are also expected to be dynamic, thanks to the recovery of world demand and because of an additional competitiveness due to a stronger dollar. Business investment will clearly strengthen, allowing French firms to rebuild their productive capacity. There is no sign of inflation tensions. Tensions on the labour market are restricted to a few sectors and still have no impact on wage inflation. Employment policy keeps on bringing an important amount of job creation especially trough the reduction working time and the jobs for young program. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 79 at the end of 2001. JEL code : F 0l [fre] La prévision de croissance de l'OFCE est de 4,2 % pour l'année 2000 et 3,8 % pour l'année 2001. L'ensemble des composantes de la demande finale connaît une progression remarquable. La consommation des ménages s'accroît à un rythme élevé. Les achats des ménages sont dopés par les fortes créations d'emplois, par les baisses d'impôts effectives et annoncées, et par un accès aisé au crédit. Le commerce extérieur apporte un dynamisme supplémentaire dans un contexte de reprise de la demande mondiale et de compétitivité restaurée par l'appréciation du dollar. L'investissement des entreprises poursuit son mouvement de rattrapage amorcé après la « croissance molle » des années 1990. Le taux d'investissement atteint ainsi 18,1 % à la fin de l'année 2001. Les tensions inflationnistes ne se manifestent pas, grâce peut-être aux nouvelles technologies. La hausse de l'investissement permet une remontée des marges de capacité productive en 2001. Les tensions sur le marché du travail restent localisées à quelques secteurs et ne se traduisent pas par une reprise de l'inflation salariale. La politique de l'emploi continue à apporter un supplément important de créations d'emplois, essentiellement par l'intermédiaire de la réduction du temps de travail et des emplois-jeunes. Le chômage se réduit ainsi fortement et atteint 7,9 % de la population active à la fin de l'année 2001.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 73 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 115-150

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_73_1_1588
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1588
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