IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel

  • John Muellbauer
  • Gavin Cameron
  • John Muellbauer

This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper276.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 276.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:276
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ

Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. K. K. Gary Wong & Keith R. McLaren, 2005. "Specification and Estimation of Regular Inverse Demand Systems: A Distance Function Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 823-834.
  2. Andrew Caplin & William Goetzmann & Eric Hangen & Barry Nalebuff & Elisabeth Prentice & John Rodkin & Matthew Spiegel & Tom Skinner, 2003. "Home Equity Insurance: A Pilot Project," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm372, Yale School of Management, revised 23 Jan 2006.
  3. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 1998. "The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices," CEPR Discussion Papers 1945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  5. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
  6. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  7. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October.
  8. Leslie Rosenthal, 2006. "Efficiency and Seasonality in the UK Housing Market, 1991-2001," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 289-317, 06.
  9. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  10. Ray Barrell & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Riley, 2004. "The Current Position of UK House Prices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 57-60, July.
  11. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  12. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, . "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 323, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  13. Eric J. Levin & Robert E. Wright, 1997. "Speculation in the Housing Market?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(9), pages 1419-1437, August.
  14. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  15. Geraint Johnes & Thomas Hyclak, . "House Prices and Regional Labor Markets," Working Papers ec15/93, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  16. Barten, A. P. & Bettendorf, L. J., 1989. "Price formation of fish : An application of an inverse demand system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1509-1525, October.
  17. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
  18. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. G. Cameron & J. Muellbauer & A. Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006-150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  21. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
  22. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
  23. Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-40, May.
  24. J. Muellbauer & J.Aron & Ant Murphy & J. Aron & A. Murphy, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," ERES eres2007-257, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  25. Johnes, Geraint & Hyclak, Thomas, 1994. "House Prices, Migration, and Regional Labor Markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 312-329, December.
  26. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2006_150 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
  28. Cook, Steven, 2005. "Regional house price behaviour in the UK: application of a joint testing procedure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 611-621.
  29. Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
  30. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  31. John V. Duca, 2005. "Making sense of elevated housing prices," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1, 7-13.
  32. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. John Muellbauer & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumer credit conditions in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  34. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  35. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Henley, Andrew, 1998. "Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 414-27, March.
  37. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
  38. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  39. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages F412-29, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Birds)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.