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A Repayment Model of House Prices

  • Jakob B Madsen

This paper proposes a model in which house prices are determined by housing affordability in the short run, while being determined by acquisition costs in the long run. Housing affordability is, in turn, determined by nominal income and nominal mortgage payments. The model explains the recent housing market run-up in the OECD countries by lower housing repayments, decreasing nominal interest rates, and a large inflow of migrants. Empirical estimates give strong support for the model and suggest that it explains house prices in the OECD better than the mainstream models.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2011/0911repaymentmodelmadsen.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 09-11.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2011-09
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Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia

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  1. Miles, David, 1992. "Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1093-1127, June.
  2. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-71, May.
  3. Thomas Leonard, 2008. "Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 356-360, December.
  4. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2006. "Baby boomer retirement security: The roles of planning, financial literacy, and Housing wealth," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 261, Stockholm School of Economics.
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  8. Eun Young Chah & Valerie A. Ramey & Ross M. Starr, 1991. "Liquidity Constraints and Intertemporal Consumer Optimization: Theory and Evidence From Durable Goods," NBER Working Papers 3907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
  10. Madsen, Jakob B., 2009. "Taxes and the fundamental value of houses," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 365-376, May.
  11. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  12. Charles P. Himmelberg & Christopher J. Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Sarah J. Carrington & Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "House Prices, Credit and Willingness to Lend," Monash Economics Working Papers 23-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  14. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
  16. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
  17. Eldar Shafir & Peter Diamond & Amos Tversky, 1997. "Money Illusion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 341-374.
  18. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. John C. Weicher, 1977. "The Affordability of New Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 209-226.
  20. Sebastian, Miguel, 1992. "'Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies' : by D. Miles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1128-1131, June.
  21. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  22. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  23. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
  24. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  25. Zeldes, Stephen P., 1992. "'Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies' : by D. Miles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1131-1135, June.
  26. Koskela, Erkki & Loikkanen, Heikki A. & Viren, Matti, 1992. "House prices, household saving and financial market liberalization in Finland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 549-558, April.
  27. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  28. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
  29. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
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