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Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries

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  • Tom Engsted

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Simon J. Hviid

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Thomas Q. Pedersen

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

We conduct an econometric analysis of bubbles in housing markets in the OECD area, using quarterly OECD data for 18 countries from 1970 to 2013. We pay special attention to the explosive nature of bubbles and use econometric methods that explicitly allow for explosiveness. First, we apply the univariate right-tailed unit root test procedure of Phillips et al. (2012) on the individual countries price-rent ratio. Next, we use Engsted and Nielsen's (2012) co-explosive VAR framework to test for bubbles. We find evidence of explosiveness in many housing markets, thus supporting the bubble hypothesis. However, we also find interesting differences in the conclusions across the two test procedures. We attribute these differences to how the two test procedures control for cointegration between house prices and rent.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Engsted & Simon J. Hviid & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2015. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," CREATES Research Papers 2015-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2015-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    3. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9565-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Itamar Caspi, 2016. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 483-516, September.
    5. Graczyk, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles," Working Paper 18-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Ryan van Lamoen & Simona Mattheussens & Martijn Dröes, 2017. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in government bond markets: Evidence from the ECB's expanded asset purchase program," DNB Working Papers 548, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. repec:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11293-017-9531-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pavlidis, Efthymios & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2017. "Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 325, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Jul 2018.
    9. repec:lrk:eeaart:36_3_12 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Martijn (M.I.) Droes & Ryan van Lamoen & Simona Mattheussens, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Exuberance in Government Bond Markets: Evidence from the ECB's Expanded Assets Purchase Program," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-080/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David Alan Peel & Alisa Yevgenyevna Yusupova, 2017. "Exuberance in the U.K. Regional Housing Markets," Working Papers 168117137, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:42-:d:158481 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2015. "Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach," Working Paper 2015/11, Norges Bank.
    14. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:96-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. ZEREN, Feyyaz & ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez, 2015. "Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 40-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-explosive VAR model; right-tailed unit root tests; date-stamping bubble periods; price-to-rent ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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