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Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor

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  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

The paper analyses the impact of persistence and volatility in the discount rate in present-value models on conintegration tests in levels and in logarithms. In simulations we find that the probability of not rejecting the null of no cointegration depends on the persistence of the discount rate process and can be very high when the expected returns process is highly persistent. In contrast, the cointegration tests are very robust with respect to the level of volatility in the discount rate. We discuss the relevance of our findings for the U.S. stock market where standard ADF tests do not reject the null of no cointegration between stock prices and dividends. Based on estimates of persistence in four asset pricing models, we find that a model which links expected returns to the dividend yield is sufficiently persistent to explain the failure of rejecting the null that stock prices and dividends are not cointegrated. Copyright 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 17-31, Jan.-Marc.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:10:y:1995:i:1:p:17-31
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    1. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    2. Ye, Yonggang & Chang, Tsangyao & Hung, Ken & Lu, Yang-Cheng, 2011. "Revisiting rational bubbles in the G-7 stock markets using the Fourier unit root test and the nonparametric rank test for cointegration," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 346-357.
    3. Gallagher, Liam A & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage, and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 524-536, October.
    4. repec:bbz:fcpbbr:v:9:y:2012:i:4:p:51-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ozan Hatipoglu & Onur Uyar, 2012. "Do Bubbles Spill Over? Estimating Financial Bubbles in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 64-75, November.
    6. Ripamonti, Alexandre, 2016. "Corwin-Schultz bid-ask spread estimator in the Brazilian stock market," MPRA Paper 79459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wang, Peijie & Brand, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to estimating value–income ratios with income growth and time-varying yields," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 182-187.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2008. "Rational Bubbles in the Korea Stock Market? Further Evidence based on Nonlinear and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(34), pages 1-12.
    9. Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
    10. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    11. Engsted, Tom, 2006. "Explosive bubbles in the cointegrated VAR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 154-162, June.
    12. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    13. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, EconWPA.
    14. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
    15. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
    16. Ozan Hatipoglu & Onur Uyar, 2012. "Do Bubbles Spill Over? Estimating Financial Bubbles in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(S5), pages 64-75, November.
    17. Fanelli, Luca, 2002. "A new approach for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations and I(1) variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 117-139, January.
    18. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2004. "Stock prices and the dividend discount model: did their relation break down in the 1990s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 191-207, May.

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