Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models: A simulation study
We analyze and compare the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in vector autoregressions. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study, we show that this simple and easy-to-use analytical bias formula compares very favorably to the more standard but also more computer intensive bootstrap bias-correction method, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. Both methods yield a notable improvement over both OLS and a recently proposed WLS estimator. We also investigate the properties of an iterative scheme when applying the analytical bias formula, and we ?find that this can imply slightly better fi?nite-sample properties for very small sample sizes while for larger sample sizes there is no gain by iterating. Finally, we also pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space during the process of correcting for bias.
|Date of creation:||13 May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
- Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012.
"Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2008. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "The exact moments of the least squares estimator for the autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 159-172, October.
- James G. MacKinnon & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., .
"Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics,"
GSIA Working Papers
1997-36, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Campbell, John, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996.
"On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
- Bao, Yong & Ullah, Aman, 2007. "The second-order bias and mean squared error of estimators in time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 650-669, October.
- Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Bias-corrected bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 141-154.
- Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
- Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November.
- Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2004.
"Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(04), pages 813-841, December.
- Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich, 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Econometrics 0412008, EconWPA.
- Kim, Jae H., 2003. "Forecasting autoregressive time series with bias-corrected parameter estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 493-502.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Orcutt, Guy H & Winokur, Herbert S, Jr, 1969. "First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, January.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29.
- K. D. Patterson, 2007. "Bias Reduction through First-order Mean Correction, Bootstrapping and Recursive Mean Adjustment," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 23-45.
- Kim, Jae H, 2001. "Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 117-28, January.
- Yakov Amihud & Clifford M. Hurvich & Yi Wang, 2009. "Multiple-Predictor Regressions: Hypothesis Testing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 413-434, January.
- Patterson, K. D., 2000. "Bias reduction in autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 135-141, August.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2011-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.